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U.S. President Biden warns Israel against escalation following Iranian attack
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Special Report: Israel, U.S., and allies successful repel massive Iranian drone and missile attack following Israeli strike on Iranian Revolutionary Guards in Syrian capital of Damascus
Israeli strike on Iranian Revolutionary Guards in Syrian capital of Damascus —
On April 1, 2024, Iran's Revolutionary Guards reported that seven officers, including senior commanders Brig-Gen Mohammad Reza Zahedi and Brig-Gen Mohammad Hadi Haji-Rahimi, were killed in an Israeli strike on the Iranian consulate building in the Syrian capital city of Damascus.
The attack, which also targeted a nearby building, was condemned by Iran and Syria. The Israeli military, however, has not officially commented on the incident, which was in keeping with Israel's typical policy.
Israeli strikes in Syria have targeted Iran-linked groups, with increased frequency since the start of the war in Gaza against Hamas in October 2023. That war was sparked by Hamas' brutal terrorist attacks in Israel on Oct. 7, 2023. While Israel has conducted its war against Hamas, it has also had to deal with a steady stream of attacks on its northern border from the Iranian-backed terror group, Hezbollah, which operates out of Lebanon with a footprint in Syria.
Syria's defense ministry reported the attack, stating that Syrian air defenses intercepted some missiles but others hit the consulate building, causing casualties. The Iranian ambassador confirmed the deaths of diplomats and military attaches, while the Revolutionary Guards identified the officers killed, including Zahedi, a prominent figure in the Quds Force who served as the Iranian IRGC's Syria-Lebanon chief.
The strike against the Iran's Revolutionary Guards in Syria could only be regarded a serious escalation in the evolving proxy war between Israel and Iran. Moreover, the apparent assassination of Mohammad Reza Zahedi marked a significant development in the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran. Zahedi, considered a key figure in organizing Hezbollah and affiliated Shi'ite militias in the region, was targeted in Damascus by two F-35s, signaling Israel's precision capabilities and strategic intent.
Zahedi's importance cannot be understated, as he was regarded as the successor to Qasem Soleimani and played a crucial role in reorganizing Hezbollah post-civil war after it was weakened by previous assassinations and the Syrian civil war.
His death, along with that of his deputy and five other senior officials, left a significant void in Iran's leadership structure, posing challenges for finding suitable replacements. In this way, the assassination of Zahedi was not just another targeted killing but a strategic victory for Israel.
Moreover, this assassination underscored the vulnerability of Iran's inner circle and the extensive intelligence required to carry out such a targeted operation. Indeed it demonstrated that the holes in Israeli intelligence identified after the Oct. 7, 2024 terror attacks were being plugged, and in fact, being strengthened, with careful penetration of the inner circles of the IRGC.
Despite Zahedi's cautious approach and efforts to conceal his movements, Israeli intelligence managed to execute a precise strike near the Iranian consulate in Damascus, suggesting a high level of infiltration within the IRGC.
The attack came amidst a series of assassinations targeting Iranian officials involved in arming Hezbollah, further exacerbating Iran's crisis and highlighting Israel's resurgence in intelligence capabilities since its setback in October 2024. By keeping Iran's network disorganized and instilling paranoia among its ranks, Israel was aiming to diminish Iran's ability to threaten its security and deter its destabilizing regional policies.
Zahedi's assassination served as a stark reminder of the ongoing covert conflict between Israel and Iran, with implications for regional dynamics and the balance of power in the Middle East.
Bracing for Iranian retaliation -
In the aftermath of Israel's strike on an Iranian consulate in Damascus, both Israel and the United States were bracing for potential retaliation from Iran, according to U.S. officials.
The Israeli strike, which targeted the Iranian consulate and resulted in the deaths of several senior leaders of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, prompted concerns of an imminent Iranian response. U.S. intelligence indicated that Iran could retaliate with a combination of Shahed loitering drones and cruise missiles, though the timing and specific target remained uncertain.
The funeral held in Tehran for the IRGC members killed in the strike was marked by warnings from Gen. Hossein Salami, the IRGC's overall commander, emphasizing that Israel would face consequences for its actions.
Indeed, Iranian officials warned that Israel's embassies were "no longer safe", indicating preparations for retaliation. That warning even came from the highest echelon of leadership, with Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's senior adviser reaffirming Iran's right to retaliate, stating that Israeli embassies were now targets.
Meanwhile, Iranian officials issued warnings against U.S. involvement in the conflict, urging the U.S. to refrain from becoming embroiled in the situation. The U.S. responded by sending a written warning to Iran, cautioning against using the Israeli strike as a pretext to attack U.S. personnel and facilities.
Furthermore, with an eye on preempting any Iranian retaliation targeting U.S. interests, Biden administration officials emphasized that the U.S. had no prior knowledge of the Israeli strike. That being said, President Biden, in a phone call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, reiterated U.S. support for Israel's defense against threats posed by Iran.
At the broader level, with tensions escalating, and the possibility of a regional conflict looming large, U.S. officials held discussions with Iraqi Prime Minister Shia al-Sudani regarding the U.S. military presence in that country. As well, U.S. forces in the region were placed on heightened alert, anticipating a possible Iranian attack.
As to the situation in Israel? Israel's military was itself on high alert, prepared for any potential threats from Iran. Reports suggested that Iran's retaliation could occur at some point in the first half of April 2024, raising concerns of further escalation.
Israeli Defense Forces Chief of General Staff Herzi Halevi asserted Israel's readiness to handle any Iranian threat, emphasizing their ability to respond forcefully.
Israel's defense establishment reportedly completed preparations for various scenarios, including halting leave for soldiers and calling up reservists to bolster air defenses. Additionally, Israel has implemented measures to disrupt missiles and drones by blocking GPS signals across the country.
Media reports have indicated the evacuation of some Israeli embassies over potential Iranian threats. Nevertheless, Israeli officials have sought to reassure the public, urging against panic-buying or withdrawals, and encouraging calm.
Iran launches unprecedented retaliatory attack on Israel —
In the late hours of April 13, 2024, Iran initiated an extraordinary retaliatory strike against Israel. This attack saw the deployment of hundreds of missiles and drones, launched not only from Iranian territory but also by Iran-supported factions in various other countries.
United States (U.S.) National Security Council spokesperson Adrienne Watson said the successive waves of attacks were “likely to unfold over a number of hours.” It was anticipated that Israel, the United States, and allies in the region would try to intercept the drones, which would likely enter Israeli airspace in the early morning hours of April 14, 2024.
Indeed, in keeping with this expectation, despite the scale of the Iranian assault, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), aided by allies, successfully intercepted nearly all incoming projectiles before they could penetrate Israeli airspace, reporting minimal damage as a result.
The IDF said that incoming projectiles were comprised of 170 drones, 120 ballistic missiles, and 30 cruise missiles. According to the IDF, the majority of these projectiles were successfully intercepted before they could enter Israeli airspace, resulting in "very little damage" from the extensive attack. The IDF's advanced air defense systems played a crucial role in neutralizing the threat posed by this large-scale offensive.
Amidst the attacks, however, a seven-year-old girl from a Bedouin village in the Negev desert sustained severe injuries due to shrapnel. At the time of writing, she was reported to be in critical condition, fighting for her life, representing the sole known casualty from this incident.
One of the primary targets appeared to be Israel's Nevatim Air Base, home to Israeli F-35 fighter jets. This assumption was based on the belief that it was an Israeli F-35 that executed a fatal attack on an Iranian consulate in Damascus, killing seven officers from Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, including two generals.
Four missiles struck the base, with one hitting a runway, another impacting an empty airplane hangar, and a third striking a disused hangar. Despite these hits, the IDF confirmed that the base remained fully operational
Further launches originated from Yemen and Iraq, though none reached Israeli soil. Early on the morning of April 14, 2024, numerous rockets were fired from Lebanon toward northern Israel, prompting Israel to conduct airstrikes against Hezbollah targets across Lebanon.
Israel and allies successful repel massive drone and missile strike from Iran —
In an interview with CBS News' national security correspondent David Martin, U.S. officials explained that Iran's strategy aimed to overwhelm both Israeli and U.S. air defenses using drones and cruise missiles as a preliminary wave. This tactic was intended to pave the way for Iran's ballistic missiles. But thanks to the joint efforts of Israel and its allies, this effort was largely unsuccessful.
The IDF reported that out of the 170 drones launched by Iran, none managed to breach Israeli territory. Israeli Air Force jets took down dozens of these drones, while U.S. aircraft, operating from bases in Saudi Arabia and Jordan, accounted for an additional 70 to 80 drone interceptions.
Despite the volume of attacks, only five out of 120 ballistic missiles fired at Israel from Iran penetrated the combined Israeli and U.S. air defenses, hitting Israeli soil. A U.S. official disclosed to CBS News that approximately half of the ballistic missiles either failed during launch or crashed mid-flight.
In addition to Israel being aided by the U.S., Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), France, and the United Kingdom (U.K.) played crucial roles in repelling the Iranian attack on Israel.
Significantly, Saudi Arabia and the UAE passed on vital intelligence. Then, the U.S., the U.K., France, and Jordan collaborated to intercept the wave of attacks launched by Iran.
Indeed Saudi Arabia and the UAE consented to discretely share intelligence, while Jordan permitted the use of its airspace by the U.S. and other countries’ warplanes. Additionally, Jordan deployed its own aircraft to intercept incoming missiles and drones. Two days prior to its attack on Israel, Iranian officials informed Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states of its intended attack on Israel, including its timing, enabling these countries to safeguard their airspace. This crucial information was subsequently relayed to the U.S., significantly aiding in the defense preparations of both the U.S. and Israel, as well as European allies such as the U.K. and France.
IDF Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari acknowledged France's role in defending Israel's airspace, highlighting their advanced technology and radar systems, although specific details of French involvement were not provided. Meanwhile, the U.K deployed RAF Typhoons from Cyprus, where its forces operate a Permanent Joint Operating Base, to intercept the Iranian drone attacks.
This collective action represented a significant gesture of solidarity from these nation states with Israel. The U.S., the U.K., and France have all been longstanding allies of Israel, and so their participation was not unexpected. The involvement of Jordan, however, was particularly striking given its previous strong criticisms of Israel's military actions in Gaza directed at the Palestinian organization Hamas.
It should be noted that the Pentagon's decision a few years ago to shift Israel from its European Command to Central Command, which includes other Middle Eastern nations, has significantly enhanced military cooperation with Arab governments under U.S. leadership. This move significantly improved intelligence sharing and set the path for early warnings across countries.
U.S. President Biden warns Israel against escalation following Iranian attack
Prior to its direct attack on Israel, Iranian officials informed their counterparts in Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states about their plans, allowing these countries to secure their airspace. This information was subsequently shared with the United States (U.S.), granting both Washington and Jerusalem vital advance notice of the impending attack. Also, as noted in the section above, Arab countries in the region, such as Jordan, actively participated in the defense of Israel.
Such regional cooperation was precisely what Israel requires for its security. As such, a reckless reaction to Iran, leading to further escalation, could compromise this strategic framework, and would be detrimental to Israel's national security interests.
Given these risks, the Biden administration has been privately and publicly advising Israel against a hasty large-scale retaliation, due to concerns over potential regional escalation and the risk that defenses might not be as effective as they were during the initial coordinated defense.
For its part, Israel's war cabinet, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, convened to deliberate on the drone attack carried out by Iran against Israel. The Israeli war cabinet discussed various retaliatory options but did not immediately make a decision; further discussions were anticipated in the near future.
Behind the scenes, Israeli ministers Benny Gantz and Gadi Eizenkot advocated for an immediate counterattack, arguing it would secure international legitimacy and potentially prevent further attacks from Iran. However, Netanyahu and others in the cabinet decided to hold off, partly due to uncertainty about the damage and casualties caused by the Iranian attack, and to await further discussion with President Biden.
During a phone call with Netanyahu, President Biden emphasized the need for careful and strategic consideration to avoid exacerbating the situation. As well, during a G7 video conference, world leaders expressed concern over possible Israeli actions leading to escalation. They unanimously agreed to advise Israel against steps that could worsen the situation, condemned the Iranian attack, showed solidarity with Israel, and called for efforts to prevent further escalation in the region.
Meanwhile, Iran's Supreme National Security Council warned of a significant response to any continued Israeli actions.
The term ‘significant” was key here because Israel was not likely to ignore a direct attack from Iran of such a robust nature.
In Israel, consensus existed on two key points: any response should be measured and require the approval of the U.S. However, as indicated above, opinions diverged on the timing and method of retaliation. Some have argued for an immediate response to establish clear consequences, while others advocated for a delayed approach to increase pressure on Iran and ensure better coordination with allies.
The nature of the response was also under discussion, with options ranging from overt military strikes by the IDF to more covert actions such as targeted assassinations, sabotage, or cyber attacks. A frequently mentioned covert strategy involved disrupting Iran's power grid through indirect means. The prevailing view suggested that a calculated cyber attack, planned in conjunction with the U.S., would be the most effective strategy. This approach would uphold Israel's deterrence capabilities without compelling Iran to retaliate overtly.
Note that on April 16, 2024, United States National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan indicated that the U.S. would impose new sanctions on Iran. The sanctions would target Iran's missile and drone program, as well as entities supporting the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Iran’s Defense Ministry.
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